By Donald Macintyre, TIME ASIA, November 4, 2002/ Vol. 160 No. 17

* With reporting by Kim Yeoshin/Seoul and Kim Yooseung/Yanji

North Korea is a monolithic black box to the rest of the world, but stress cracks can be seen in the aspiring nuclear power The teenager looks at least three years younger than his 17 years. His eyes dart around or lock on his shoe tops when he talks. But when you take him to a neighborhood restaurant and put a steaming plate of dumplings in front of him, he suddenly perks up and starts to look you in the eye. Walking for a day from his village in North Korea, he crossed the Tumen River into China in early October, hoping to earn some money to buy food for his parents. He doesn't want you to use his name or take his picture. If a copy of this magazine were to fall into the hands of North Korean authorities, "they'll really beat me up," he says. Jae Young — a pseudonym he agrees to — has heard about the economic reforms unveiled by his country's leaders in July. But all that's happened in his village, Jae Young says, is that the price of grain has gone up, leaving his family hungrier than before. He falls silent at the mention of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il, the man all North Koreans are taught to revere as a demigod. Jae Young has nothing to say on that topic except "There is nothing to eat."

Without knowing it, the stunted, starving young man speaks for a nation that is beginning to show the stress cracks of a bankrupt leadership. On Oct. 4, North Korea acknowledged that it was secretly trying to build nuclear weapons. The shocking admission, to senior U.S. diplomat James Kelly, was not made as a threat or a taunt. It was as much as anything else the distressed cry of a beleaguered nation running out of options. In fact, North Korea's nuclear confessions were among a stream of pronouncements issued from Pyongyang over the past few months, each one more surprising than the last. The country is scrambling to prop up its collapsed command economy with a dose of capitalism. The centerpiece of the reform efforts—a Chinese-style special economic zone in the northwestern town of Sinuiju—will probably never get off the ground, according to businessmen across the river in the Chinese city of Dandong. For one thing, the Chinese entrepreneur appointed to run it has been arrested by the mainland for unspecified wrongdoings. For another, the nuclear disclosure has put North Korea in U.S. President George W. Bush's gunsight. Who would invest there now?...

SEOUL OFFICIAL SAYS NORTH TO CUT ITS FORCES BY 10%

Joongang Ilbo reported that ROK government official said that DPRK is planning to reduce its armed forces by about 10 percent to free up labor needed for its economic reform measures. About 100,000 members of the Second Economic Commission, a part of DPRK' s armed forces assigned to logistics and civil engineering, will soon be discharged, the official said, quoting DPRK intelligence sources in Beijing. The economic commission was established in the early 1970s to manage military logistics. The National Defense Commission, headed by the DPRK leader Kim Jong-il oversees the economic unit, which is responsible for the production and supply of military equipment, weapons and ammunition. It also runs an income-earning agricultural production and export business on the side. The official said that details of the timing and exact scale of the reduction have not been confirmed. (Kim Min-seok, Lee Young-jong, "SEOUL OFFICIAL SAYS NORTH TO CUT ITS FORCES BY 10%," Seoul, 11/06/02)
 

NORTH THREATENS TO RENEGE ON MISSILE TESTING BAN

Joongang Ilbo reported that DPRK's Foreign Ministry spokesman Tuesday blamed Japan for the lack of progress on talks to normalize relations between the two countries, and said DPRK may reconsider its self-imposed moratorium on ballistic missile testing. Speaking through the state-run Korean Central News Agency, the unnamed spokesman said the spirit of trust between the two countries that was established when the leaders of the two countries met in September has suffered, as Japan has insisted, from "twisted logic." The two sides agreed to continue talks this month, but tense words have been exchanged since the Malaysia meeting. The lack of progress has led DPRK to review several security issues, including "the nuclear and ballistic missile" issues, the spokesman told the press agency. The joint declaration released after the North-Japan summit in September referred to the possibility that the moratorium may be extended beyond 2003. (Kim Young-sae, "NORTH THREATENS TO RENEGE ON MISSILE TESTING BAN," Seoul, 11/06/02)
 

OIL SHIPMENT TO NORTH KOREA GOES AHEAD DESPITE NUKE CRISIS

The Agence France-Presse reported that an international consortium is preparing a new shipment of fuel oil to the DPRK under a 1994 deal despite renewed concerns over the DPRK's nuclear weapons program, officials said here. The Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) has already begun loading more than 40,000 tons of heavy fuel oil for November's shipment to the DPRK. "The loading of the fuel oil is underway in Singapore," a senior official from the Office of the Lightwater Reactor Project said Wednesday. "We are following the normal procedures as no decisions have yet been made as to whether to continue the energy assistance or to stop it," he said. US Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly raised doubts whether the US would countenance any future payments towards fuel oil for the DPRK. "For next year though, I see very little support in the US Congress to continue providing these fuel shipments," Kelly said on Tuesday. ("OIL SHIPMENT TO NORTH KOREA GOES AHEAD DESPITE NUKE CRISIS," 11/06/02)
 

US RAISES DOUBTS OVER NORTH KOREA FUEL SHIPMENT

The Agence France-Press The United States has raised doubts that North Korea would receive its latest oil shipment mandated by a 1994 arms control pact which Pyongyang said was nullified last month when it confessed to developing nuclear weapons. The deal, known as the Agreed Framework, was supposed to freeze Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program in exchange for the provision of two nuclear power reactors and half a million metric tonnes of fuel oil a year until their construction is complete. The State Department said Tuesday it was discussing the fate of a shipment of more than 40,000 metric tonnes, recently loaded onto a tanker in Singapore, with fellow members of the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO). Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly, who secured the nuclear confession from the DPRK during a visit to the Stalinist state last month, said that a meeting of KEDO next week would take up the issue. "There is a board meeting next Monday that's going to decide whether that goes ahead," said Kelly. ("US RAISES DOUBTS OVER NORTH KOREA FUEL SHIPMENT," 11/06/02)

"No One is Stronger Than a Person Who is Prepared to Die"

Yoichi Funabashi, Asahi Simbun

During the normalization talks, Ambassador Jong Thae Hwa described North Korea's determination for survival with the phrase ``no one is stronger than a person who is prepared to die.'' There is no guarantee that North Korea, which is driving itself to play such a ghastly game for survival, would not explode any time. Ambassador Jong Thae Hwa, who represented the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) at the Japan-North Korea normalization talks in Kuala Lumpur, had firmly maintained in past sessions that the abduction issue was a fabrication. As it turned out, he was telling a big lie. Despite recent developments, however, Jong did not speak any words of ``remorse'' this time. Properly speaking, his failure to express such sentiment made him a poor negotiator. The Japanese side should have clearly pointed it out at the negotiation table.

However, his Japanese counterpart, Ambassador Katsunari Suzuki, appeared nonchalant, perhaps because he stands by the belief that ``if necessary, professional diplomats must not hesitate to join hands with the devil.'' Furthermore, Jong, who has a military background, may be thinking that the job of diplomats is to ``lie for their country.'' Of course, Ambassador Jong is no devil. In past sessions, he was known to hit the table in a fit of fury, but this time, it seems he neither walked out of the room in a rage nor abused the Japanese side. In a press briefing, a Foreign Ministry official spoke about the North Korean attitude concerning the Pyongyang declaration signed at the Japan-North Korean summit and said: ``We felt that they have a strong bearing to sincerely abide by it because it was signed by whom they refer to as `Dear Leader.''' Since when has the Foreign Ministry begun to call General Secretary of the Korean Workers Party Kim Jong Il ``Dear Leader'' (even with the notation ``whom they refer to as'')?..

UN SAYS COULD AGAIN SLASH NORTH KOREA FOOD PROGRAM

By David Ljunggren, November 5, 2002

OTTAWA (Reuters) - The United Nations World Food Program (WFP) warned on Tuesday that a serious funding shortfall meant it might again be forced to slash food distribution in Stalinist North Korea. The WFP, which has been feeding about a third of North Korea's 23 million people, began halting food aid to millions of hungry children, women and elderly people in September because of a slump in grain donations. By the end of the year, some three million people will be cut off and another 1.5 million may follow early next year. "We've had to cut our work in North Korea in half and I'm concerned we may have to cut it in half again ... I'm very troubled about how we're going to do our humanitarian work in North Korea going forward," said WFP Executive Director James Morris.

"Japan has historically given us $100 million a year to feed the people in North Korea. They've not been able to do that this year and that's a serious resource shortfall," he told Ottawa's National Press Club. Last year Japan topped the list of international donors with a donation of 500,000 tonnes (490,000 tons) of grain. Some analysts say Tokyo turned off the taps this year in frustration at a lack of progress in political talks, which have now resumed. The prospects for the talks are unclear. Pyongyang, increasingly isolated over a secret nuclear arms program, threatened earlier on Tuesday to reconsider a moratorium on test-firing missiles if talks on normalizing ties with Japan failed to make progress. The isolated, heavily armed state -- branded part of an "axis of evil" by U.S. President George W. Bush -- has been hard hit by several years of natural disasters, chronic food and energy shortages, and economic mismanagement.

"We keep our focus on feeding the hungry poor and try to be as narrow in our outlook as we possibly can, not to get hung up on all the other very troublesome political issues," said Morris, expressing optimism that the fall harvest would help alleviate problems in the short term. Washington has said more aid to North Korea would be conditional on Pyongyang giving more freedom to humanitarian organizations such as the WFP. Morris said that although the WFP had made great strides, working conditions inside North Korea were very difficult. "We asked the government of North Korea to give us a list of the institutions that receive the food. We don't get adequate reports. We don't have a good understanding with the government about the evacuation of our personnel if they have a health problem," he said. "It's mind-boggling to me, I must say, when you're trying to do nothing but save lives and feed people and do humanitarian work, why some governments make it so difficult."

"Current Developments on the Korean Peninsula: Are There Grounds for Hope?"

by Han Sung-Joo, November 5, 2002

Despite our tremendous foresight when we were planning for this lecture, we did not quite anticipate that relations between North and South Korea would be at such an interesting juncture. We should have known, however we could even have bet our last dollar that just about any time is an interesting time to talk about this subject. But today, it seems even more so. In fact, I was at this campus to give a talk on a similar topic early this year. That was on February 1st, three days after the famous "axis of evil" speech by President Bush. At the time, by including North Korea as a member of his notorious axis, President Bush squashed any hope of an early U.S.-North Korea rapprochement.

Today, with Pyongyang's admission that they have been engaged in an enriched uranium nuclear weapons development program, the situation on the Korean Peninsula, not to speak of relations between the United States and North Korea, seems to be entering a rather rough period. Perhaps I can address this problem by asking a few key questions and venturing to answer them. First, given North Korea's commitment under the 1994 Geneva Agreed Framework to freeze all nuclear activity in return for light water reactors and a supply of heavy oil, why did it decide to restart its nuclear weapons program and thus violate, even flout, the agreement?

CONSTRUCTION TO BEGIN NEXT MONTH'S KAESEONG INDUSTRY PARK

Joognang Ilbo reported that ROK and DPRK have agreed to begin building an industrial zone in Kaeseong, DPRK, next month. The target is to allow South Korean firms to establish plants in the zone beginning in late 2003. The two Koreas are also reportedly near an agreement on tourism programs in the city northwest of Seoul across the Demilitarized Zone that could begin early next year. After three days of talks in Pyongyang, delegates from the ROK and the DPRK announced the agreement Saturday. Two ROK firms, Hyundai Asan Corp. and the state-run Korea Land Corp., will develop 3.3 million square meters of land by the end of next year in the first stage of a project to turn 66 million square meters of land into an industrial zone. DPRK said it will set up a new legal system for the zone, making it a special district with tax benefits and a minimum of interference in the use of the land, the operation of plants located there and funds flows. (Kim Young-hoon, "CONSTRUCTION TO BEGIN NEXT MONTH'S KAESEONG INDUSTRY PARK," Seoul, 11/04/02)

Self-sufficiency in economy

Pyongyang, November 4 (KCNA) -- Self-sufficiency in the economy elucidated by the Juche idea is a guiding principle of the party and state activities for applying an independent stand and creative stand in the revolution and construction. Adhering to the principle of self-sufficiency in the economy means building an economy which is free from dependence on others and which stands on its own feet, an economy which meets the material demand of one's own people and country by itself. The Juche idea clarifies that economic self-sufficiency is essential for definitely guaranteeing the political sovereignty and independence of the country and providing an independent and creative material life to the popular masses. Only on the basis of economic self-sufficiency, can any nation defend the political sovereignty, build a prosperous independent and sovereign state and provide an independent and creative material life to the popular masses.

 
In order to achieve economic self-sufficiency, it is necessary to adhere to the principle of self-reliance and build an independent national economy. One cannot build an independent national economy and solve one's own problems by depending on others. If an independent national economy is to be built, the economy must be developed in a diversified and integral way and establish one's own reliable and independent sources of raw materials and fuel. It makes it possible to fully meet the material requirements of one's own country and people and develop the economy in a safe and forward-looking manner. The Juche idea gives a scientific exposition of the principle of economic self-sufficiency and ways of achieving it, thus providing an ideological and theoretical weapon to build a powerful independent and sovereign state and make an independent development of the nation by strengthening the country's economic independence and consolidating the material and technical foundations of socialism.

OIL FOR NORTH SUSPENDED TEMPORARILY

Chosun Ilbo reported that the plan to send 400,000 tons of oil to DPRK this week has been temporarily halted it was learned Sunday. An ROK government official announced Sunday, that alongside the US and Japan a final decision upon sending the oil will be made around November 15 after the Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group, or TCOG meeting scheduled to open in Tokyo and Seoul from November 8. Considering limiting various aid sent to DPRK, the three countries also reached an agreement to make concrete counter plans in case DPRK continues its clandestine nuclear development programs. In accordance with this, the three are considering boycotting a Nuclear Accident Compensation Protocol meeting between KEDO and DPRK originally scheduled for this month. The official said, the US, Japan and ROK will continue its firm principal requesting prior suspension of DPRK's nuclear program and if it fails to comply, phased counter measures will be applied. (Kwon Kyung-bok, "OIL FOR NORTH SUSPENDED TEMPORARILY," Seoul, 11/04/02)

Rodong Sinmun on army-based policy

Pyongyang, November 3 (KCNA) -- The army-based policy of the DPRK is an independent and patriotic policy that protects the dignity, security and interests of the nation from imperialist aggression, says Rodong Sinmun today in a signed article. The army-centered policy is the wisest policy adopted in view of the history of national sufferings in which its sovereignty was wantonly violated by foreign forces, the article says, and goes on:
The policy serves as a treasured sword of justice to bring down a sledge hammer upon the heads of the imperialists who encroach upon the sovereignty and the vital rights of the Korean nation, and a powerful driving force pushing forward the movement for independent national reunification.

The north and the south of Korea are exposed to grave encroachment and threats by the U.S. imperialists. The U.S. is posing a nuclear threat to the Korean Peninsula, while trying to mislead the public opinion with much ado about "nuclear weapons program" of the DPRK. Lurking behind their moves is a sinister intention to disarm the DPRK and deprive it of its vital rights so as to enslave all the Koreans. Once they trigger a war against the DPRK, South Korea will not go safe. If a nuclear war breaks out in the small Korean Peninsula, all the Koreans in the north and south will suffer from it. From a logical viewpoint, the DPRK's army-based policy is the most independent and just patriotic policy to foil the U.S. imperialists' moves for aggression and protect the dignity and interests of the whole nation including South Koreans.

First meeting of panel for construction of Kaesong Industrial Zone held

Pyongyang, November 2 (KCNA) -- The first meeting of the panel for the construction of the Kaesong Industrial Zone took place here from October 30 to November 2 under the agreement reached at the 2nd meeting of the north-south committee for the promotion of economic cooperation. An agreement adopted at the panel meeting said that the north and the south decided to hold a ground breaking ceremony for the construction of the Kaesong Industrial Zone in December and actively cooperate with each other in the efforts to complete the first phase development of one million Phyong of the zone by the year 2003.

It was decided that the north side would recommend that a law on the zone would be promulgated in November to rapidly push forward the construction and provide labour force necessary for the construction and the south side render the biggest possible cooperation so that the construction of external infrastructure including electricity, telecommunications and water service may be sped up in a commercial manner.

The north and the south agreed to discuss and solve the issues of passage, customs, quarantine and telecommunications related to the construction through the committee and working-level contacts between those concerned of both sides when railway and road links are reconnected. They also agreed to set up an office concerned of the south side in the zone when it is built and hold the 2nd meeting of the panel for the construction in Seoul in December 2002. The authorities of the two sides decided to actively cooperate with each other for the implementation of the agreement.

NORTH KOREA REMAINS DEFIANT ON NUCLEAR OPTION

Reuters reported that the DPRK defended what it said was a right to have nuclear weapons -- without saying if it actually had them -- and renewed calls on Friday for the US to sign a non-aggression pact. At a rare news conference in the DPRK's embassy in Beijing, Ambassador Choe Jin Su repeated an October 25 Foreign Ministry statement that blamed the administration of President Bush for the nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula and said the US had violated a key 1994 agreement. "Reckless political, economic and military pressure from the Bush administration is seriously threatening our right to subsistence, creating a grave situation on the Korean peninsula," he said though a translator. "We told the special envoy of the US president that we were entitled to possess not only nuclear weapons but any type of weapon more powerful than that in order to protect our sovereignty and right to subsistence from an ever growing U.S. nuclear threat," he said. (John Ruwitch, "NORTH KOREA REMAINS DEFIANT ON NUCLEAR OPTION," Beijing, 11/01/02)

"Responding to North Korea's Surprises"

by John Feffer, November 1, 2002

For a supposedly changeless, monolithic state, North Korea shakes up the staid world of diplomacy with surprising frequency. In the past four months, Pyongyang has initiated dramatic economic changes, stunned Japan with its confession of abductions, appointed a Chinese-born tycoon to oversee its newest free-trade zone, and sent its first-ever boatload of athletes, musicians, and cheerleaders to South Korea to participate in the 2002 Asian games. In the latest stunner, North Korea revealed in early October to a visiting U.S. delegation that it has violated international agreements with a secret uranium enrichment program.

So often on the receiving end of carrot-and-stick policies, North Korea has been trying its own alternation of sweet and sour. The summer began on a sour note. At the end of June, in what has become a semi-annual clash during the lucrative crab harvesting season, North and South Korean boats exchanged fire in a disputed area of the West Sea, leaving four ROK sailors and an estimated thirty DPRK sailors dead. Planned negotiations with the United States immediately evaporated. With North Korea refusing to acknowledge dispatching a spy boat sunk by Self Defense Forces in December 2001, relations with Japan were also at an impasse...

U.S. espionage flights in October

Pyongyang, November 1 (KCNA) -- The U.S. imperialist warhawks made over 200 espionage flights against the DPRK in October, according to military sources. Mobilized for the espionage were strategic and tactical reconnaissance planes of different missions including U-2, RC-135, E-3 and RC-12. These planes took off U.S. air force bases in South Korea, Japan and other areas overseas and made shuttle flights in the sky over the area along the military demarcation line to spy on the forefrontal areas of the DPRK and its depth. The cases of espionage by U-2 high-altitude strategic reconnaissance plane, RC-135 strategic reconnaissance plane and E-3 commanding plane numbered over 30. 20 more U.S. espionage flights were committed in October than September. They were timed to coincide with the military moves escalated by the U.S. administration to stifle the DPRK by force of arms under the pretext of a "nuclear issue".

Public Executions All But Gone

By Kang Chol-hwan (nkch@chosun.com), Chosun Ilbo, October 30, 2002

It has recently been learned that the notorious public executions carried out across North Korea in the latter half of the 1990's are all but gone since 2000, and that the family life of political prisoners has eased significantly. "Under Kim Jong Il's order issued to the State Security Agency and border guards early in 2000: 'Don't fire shots in the Republic,' no public executions have been carried out in the North, particularly in the border area," said a North Korean who has fled to China and who had served with the border guard.

Recalling the gruesome 1998 executions in public in Musan County, North Hamgyong Province of organized gangs, convicted of plundering electricity and communication wires, contraband trade and human trafficking with China, another North Korean who is connected with the State Security Agency, and who is engaged in smuggling with China, said that not a single public execution has taken place in the North since 2000.

Murderers, state property destroyers and public fund embezzlers, who would have been executed in public in the past, are now given prison terms of up to 20 years, said still another North Korean who used to be a ranking bureaucrat in the Hyeryong city administration, North Hamgyong Province. Most felons who would have been sentenced to death in the past are now given life terms, he added. The purported suspension of open executions is reportedly ascribed to censure by the world community.

Pyongyang is also said to have suspended punishing the families of political criminals, unless involved in grave offenses. "Incidents still occur in the border area such as Musan and Chongjin in which alleged smugglers with China and the South are taken by the State Security Agency, only to be seen no more," claimed a North Korean who has connections with the state security outfit. "But their families are no longer affected." Such families are still placed under surveillance, though, and the incidents have increased in number in which alleged political offenders are detained by the authorities and go missing without trace being given, according to the source.

Though public executions have drastically declined in number in the face of the strong disapproval and criticism in the international community, claimed a North Korean defector in the South, executions still take place within State Security Agency facilities and prisons as frequently as before. "Unless Pyongyang undergoes a fundamental changes with respect to human rights, political offenders would continuously be confined in concentration camps without undergoing formal trials; and some would be executed in secret," opined the defector.
 

OPEC WILL LEND NORTH $10 MILLION FOR A DAM

Joongang Ilbo reported that DPRK will receive a US$10 million agricultural development loan from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the organization said Tuesday. The money will be used for construction of an irrigation system in North Pyongyang province, the fund said. The loan is repayable over 20 years with a five-year grace period. It is the second time that DPRK has benefited from an OPEC Fund agricultural development loan. A US$5 million loan was given in 1999. DPRK's Agricultural Ministry plans to build a 660-meter-long dam and a 64-kilometer irrigation canal to supply waters to 100 cooperative farms. ("OPEC WILL LEND NORTH $10 MILLION FOR A DAM," Seoul, 10/31/02)

TAIWAN CAUTIOUS ABOUT NORTH

Joongang Ilbo reported that Taiwanese companies are interested in investing in DPRK, but reluctant to press ahead due to a lack of trust in its government, according to the chairman of the Chinese National Association of Industry and Commerce. Jeffrey L. S. Koo, who is also chairman of China Trust Financial Holding Co. and an economic adviser to Taiwanese President Chen Shuibian, was speaking at the Confederation of Asia-Pacific Chambers of Commerce and Industry's 19th conference in Seogwipo, Jeju island, Wednesday.

Koo said many Taiwanese firms were afraid to invest in DPRK after it recently acknowledged abducting Japanese civilians. Koo said he was optimistic about continued economic cooperation between Taiwan and PRC. He said PRC had become the biggest importer of Taiwanese goods, recently surpassing US, and that over 50,000 Taiwanese firms had invested in the mainland. More than 100 businessmen from 22 Asia-Pacific nations attended the meeting. The confederation, founded in 1966, is based in Taipei and the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry is a regular member. (Choi Hyung-kyu, "TAIWAN CAUTIOUS ABOUT NORTH," Seoul, 10/31/02)

JAPANESE PRESS LAMBASTS NORTH KOREAN STANCE DURING TALKS

Agence France-Presse reported that the DPRK's stance during recent normalisation talks with Japan raised doubts about the sincerity it showed at a landmark summit just a month ago, Japanese media said. "This marks the first real negotiations since Prime Minister (Junichiro) Koizumi visited North Korea, and there was plenty to indicate that choppy waters lie ahead," the Asahi Shimbun said in an editorial. "North Korea's response raises doubts about how serious it is about carrying out the content of the Pyongyang Declaration," it said, referring to a joint statement signed by Koizumi and DPRK leader Kim Jong-Il in Pyongyang last month. Two days of bureaucrat-level talks between the sides ended in discord in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday as Pyongyang rebuffed Tokyo's requests about its nuclear weapons program and the families of Japanese citizens kidnapped to the DPRK. DPRK officials said a solution to the nuclear issue lies only in talks with the US and dismissed the kidnapping matter as "almost settled".

The country meanwhile pressed for talks for reparations for Japan's wartime colonial rule of the Korean peninsula. But papers said the DPRK should realize its nuclear threat is of paramount importance to Japan and that economic aid would only come later. "With the combination of its nuclear development and its missile program, there is no greater menace to Japan," the Yomiuri Shimbun printed. "Saying it will only negotiate with the United States on this issue, North Korea will only cause the failure of talks with Japan," it said. "The Bush administration has no intention of negotiating with Pyongyang over nuclear weapons," the Asahi said. "North Korea should realise that without Japan's involvement, there will be no movement on this issue." ("JAPANESE PRESS LAMBASTS NORTH KOREAN STANCE DURING TALKS," 10/31/01)

N. KOREA BACKS AWAY FROM DIPLOMACY

The Washington Post, reported that the DPRK halted its recent moves toward conciliatory diplomacy at talks this week with Japan and set the stage for confrontation with the outside world over its program to develop a nuclear bomb. In two days of talks, the DPRK refused to dismantle its nuclear program without direct negotiations with the US and balked at reuniting with their parents the children of five released kidnap victims who are in Japan on a "visit." By refusing to negotiate with Japan over its nuclear program, the DPRK shunned a diplomatic route that could have defused a potential showdown with the US. The DPRK has instead demanded talks on the nuclear issue solely with the US. The Bush administration has said it will not negotiate with the DPRK. Japanese negotiators acknowledged disappointment in the deadlock at the end of the talks tonight. "Although we made utmost efforts, to our regret, we failed to secure a change in their position," Japan's chief negotiator, Katsunari Suzuki, told reporters. [This Washington Post article originally appeared in the US Defense Department's Early Bird News Summary.] (Doug Struck, "N. KOREA BACKS AWAY FROM DIPLOMACY," Tokyo, 10/31/02)
 

KCNA REFUTES US CLAIM FOR SCRAPPING DPRK'S 'NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM

The Korean Central News Agency carried a story that said, US high-ranking authorities reportedly called on the DPRK to scrap its nuclear weapons program, asserting that the US would not resume talks with the DPRK and calling for putting international pressure upon it under the pretext of its nuclear issue. The DPRK can not but clarify its resolute and principled stand on the issue as the US is disclosing its bellicose attempt to drive the military situation on the Korean Peninsula to a nuclear showdown, far from opting to improve the DPRK-US relations. The US is misrepresenting the situation as if the DPRK had breached the DPRK-US agreed framework. But the stark reality proves that the assertion is nothing but sheer sophism.

The Bush administration has pursued a hostile policy to stifle the DPRK by force. The US is chiefly to blame for reducing to dead documents all international agreements and conventions, including the DPRK-US Agreed Framework (AF), the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), and the north-south joint declaration on denuclearization. It is foolhardy of the US to calculate that it can destroy the DPRK's powerful armed forces whose offensive and defensive means are more powerful than when the AF was released in 1994. If the US continues turning down our proposal and posing nuclear threats to the DPRK, the latter will be left with no option but to take a corresponding measure. The US assertion will only spark a new clash. ("KCNA REFUTES US CLAIM FOR SCRAPPING DPRK'S 'NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM,'" Pyongyang, 10/31/02)
 

"North Korea Back to the Future"

by Glyn Ford, October 30, 2002

Next year's crisis on the Korean Peninsula has come early. 2003 was to see a change of regime in South Korea, markedly less sympathetic to engagement with the North than current President Kim Dae Jung, the final failure of the US to deliver the North two promised nuclear power stations, and the expiry of North Korea's self-imposed moratorium on missile testing; an explosive conjuncture of events. All were pre-empted by North Korea admitting that - aided and abetted by Pakistan - they have been engaged in a clandestine programme to produce enriched uranium since the end of the 1990s, breaching Agreements made with the US in 1994.

The question is why has North Korea's leader triggered such a crisis now? The answer is two-fold. First, they see the US as comprehensively failing to deliver technically, politically and militarily on the promises of 1994, and with Iraq in US sights, an opportunity to negotiate a new comprehensive solution rather than precipitate US military adventurism by breaking US hawks attempts to neatly sequence action against the three 'Axis of Evil' regimes. Secondly, they need international aid. North Korea has taken a series of, almost certainly irreversible, steps transforming their command economy into one where the market plays a central role. The old system of guaranteed food delivered through the People's Distribution Centres has, since the 1st of July, been superseded by an emphasis on producers and production, where massive increases in wages are available as an incentive. The old emphasis on equality that allowed free riding has been swept away. Now agriculture and industry have to be competitive. Yet these very changes pose a threat. Over the past five years, one in eight of the population has died of starvation. Food production still fails to match demand, many factories lack fuel and raw materials but not workers. With no work possible, millions now face an even bleaker future. The consequences can only be eliminated by greater, rather than less, aid and assistance.

"North Korea's Nuclear Program: An Assessment Of U.S. Options"

by Steve LaMontagne, October 30, 2002

North Korea's recent admission that it has continued to pursue a nuclear weapons program in violation of the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty, the 1992 Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and the 1994 Agreed Framework caught the United States off guard and startled the world. As the Bush administration endeavors to mount a coordinated international response, it is important to consider the status of North Korea's nuclear program, possible reasons for its disclosure, and the implications of various response options.

When Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly visited North Korea in early October, he presented his counterparts in Pyongyang with U.S. intelligence suggesting that North Korea had sought and acquired materials necessary to build gas centrifuges to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons. Pakistan may have provided key assistance to North Korea, possibly as a quid pro quo for ballistic missile technology allegedly received from Pyongyang in the late 1990s. Russia and China may also have provided assistance to North Korea, although both countries deny it...

THE GREATEST THREAT

Nicholas D. Kristof

New York Times, October 29, 2002. The scariest place in the world right now is not Iraq, but rather the Korean peninsula. We're being blackmailed by a nuclear power, and so President Bush is in an exceptionally difficult situation - one that he has handled very ably so far. But the administration's game plan to isolate North Korea is, as our allies are desperately trying to tell us, potentially catastrophic. President Bush wants to squeeze North Korea into abandoning the uranium enrichment program to which it recently confessed. North Korea has enough plutonium in Yongbyon to rapidly make at least five nuclear weapons, possibly more. That's its leverage: threatening to turn Yongbyon into a nuclear assembly line, which in turn might ultimately lead Japan and South Korea to go nuclear as well. So play the scenario out. We cut off fuel oil and introduce sanctions. Then North Korea revives Yongbyon and threatens to uncan the plutonium.

From there, it's easy to imagine the U.S. bombing Yongbyon (both the first Bush and the Clinton administrations had contingency plans to do just that), after which North Korea lashes out with artillery at Seoul. In fact, North Korea's ballistic missiles probably can't reach the continental U.S. Still, North Korea's artillery can destroy Seoul. Don Oberdorfer, in his book "The Two Koreas," cites an estimate from a former American commander in South Korea that a war could kill one million people, including 100,000 Americans. In the coming months, the most delicate problem in international relations will be how to negotiate an end to this crisis. If all sides play their cards wisely, we could not only defuse the confrontation, but also launch North Korea on a path like the one China pursued away from Stalinism. North Korea is the most totalitarian country in the world, and possibly the most dangerous adversary we face. But that's precisely the reason we need to engage it.

North Korea Insists Only Natural Disasters Prevented It from Protecting Its Citizens

By Naomi Koppel, The Associated Press

October 29, 2002. GENEVA - North Korea said it has zero unemployment, free education and free health care but admitted it has not provided adequate food and housing for its citizens in recent years because of a series of natural disasters, the government said in a report to the United Nations. In a long-overdue report to the U.N. Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, the reclusive communist nation said it had been steadily improving its citizens' standard of living until floods and other disasters struck. "A number of industrial facilities and equipment were submerged and destroyed by pouring rain, drought, tidal waves, typhoons and other natural disasters," the report said. "The shortage of power, fuel, facilities and materials affected the overall national economy and people's lives."

The government said grain production fell from 9.1 million tons in 1990 to 2.5 million in 1995, rising only slightly in the following years. Ten percent of children under seven were malnourished in 2000, it said. The government added that many people lost their homes in flooding. "The state stresses the construction of houses to stabilize people's lives as soon as possible even if they lack many things and the situation is still hard," it said. The economy also was affected by "the collapse of the socialist market," the report said ? a reference to the dismantling of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. However, the North Korean government said everybody was committed to working to put the country back on track. "The different sectors of the national economy gradually recovered their production ability, readjusted the basis of the independent national economy and laid the firm foundation for a new leap forward."

 
Tens of thousands of impoverished North Koreans have tried to flee repression and hunger in their country, but many have been returned by neighboring China, which considers them to be illegal migrants. The report said every person had the right to join a labor union, but added, "the forming of a trade union that endangers the state security and harms the healthy state and social order is forbidden." Similarly, it said, people have the right to hold demonstrations as long as they do not harm state security. The report will be considered by the U.N. committee, which oversees an international convention on economic, social and cultural rights, at a future meeting, probably next year. Countries are supposed to produce a report within a year of ratifying the convention, and then every five years after that.

North Korea ratified the accord in 1981 but only produced its first report in 1989. This is the second report.
The convention is one of a series of treaties that cover basic human rights. It does not deal with issues such as prevention of torture, political rights and racial discrimination. Cash-strapped North Korea has recently shown signs of opening to the outside world in an attempt to win economic aid. It is currently holding talks with Japan to discuss establishing diplomatic ties. In 2000 it produced its first report to a U.N. human rights body in more than a decade when it set out its compliance with the Convention on Civil and Political Rights. In response, the panel that monitors the treaty issued an extensive range of recommendations covering the country's use of the death penalty, torture, trafficking, lack of freedom of movement, unfair trials and political prisoners. "The observance of human rights is obligatory for all nations whether they are capitalists or socialists," it said.

NORTH KOREA BELIEVED TO POSSESS UP TO 4,000 TONNES OF BIOCHEMICAL WEAPONS

Agence France-Presse reported that the ROK believes the DPRK possesses some 4,000 ton of biochemical weapons and has built as many as three crude nuclear weapons, the ROK's intelligence agency chief told lawmakers. In testimony to the parliament's Intelligence Committee Monday, Shin Kun, director of the National Intelligence Service, said the DPRK was capable of producing some 4,500 tons of weapons annually. Pyongyang began its biochemical weapons program about four decades ago. "The North is believed to have a stockpile of between 2,500-4,000 ton of biochemical weapons," an opposition Grand National Party (GNP) lawmaker, Lee Yoon-Sung, quoted Shin as saying. "We are unable to judge how powerful those biochemical weapons are as we have yet to confirm the accuracy of their delivery systems and whether the North has made those weapons compact enough to deliver."  The weapons would have been built using some seven to 22 kilograms (15 to 49 pounds) of plutonium the DPRK is believed to have extracted before it opened nuclear facilities to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections in 1992. ("NORTH KOREA BELIEVED TO POSSESS UP TO 4,000 TONNES OF BIOCHEMICAL WEAPONS," 10/29/02)
 

N. KOREA REJECTS CALL TO GIVE UP NUCLEAR WEAPONS

The Associated Press reported that the DPRK has rejected demands that it give up its nuclear weapons program, a Japanese official indicated as Japan and the DPRK were engaged in talks aimed at normalizing diplomatic relations. "Japan expressed grave concern on nuclear issues and we also referred to the statement issued last week by Japan, the United States and South Korea. To put it in one sentence North Korea's response was they do not accept it at all," said the official. The statement by the three countries, issued on Saturday, demanded the DPRK immediately give up its quest for nuclear weapons. The Japanese official said the response came from the head of DPRK's delegation to the talks in the Malaysian capital, DPRK's roving ambassador Jong Thae-Hwa, who "went on to say America's hostile stance toward North Korea is to blame. ("N. KOREA REJECTS CALL TO GIVE UP NUCLEAR WEAPONS," 10/29/02)

"Deja Vu All Over Again?"

by Ralph A. Cossa, October 29, 2002 Pacific Forum CSIS
 

Seoul: Is it deja vu all over again on the Korean Peninsula? The short answer is "yes!" . . . and "no!" North Korea seems to be following its time-honored pattern, witnessed most prominently during the 1993-94 nuclear crisis that lead to the now "nullified" Agreed Framework. Like today, the North was then suspected of cheating on nuclear-related international agreements: the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) and its associated International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Safeguards Agreement. Its response was to announce a planned withdrawal from the NPT, thus creating a diplomatic crisis that came uncomfortably close to resulting in a military confrontation. (Then-U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry has acknowledged that the U.S. was very close to resorting to military force - a surgical strike against the Yongbyon nuclear facility - before former U.S. President Jimmy Carter inserted himself into the process and led the two sides away from a confrontation and toward a negotiated settlement under the Agreed Framework.)

Having been once again caught cheating, Pyongyang has resorted to form, this time surprisingly admitting its sins before seemingly walking away from the Agreed Framework and once again creating a diplomatic challenge that could lead to hostilities if mismanaged. For Pyongyang it seems to be business as usual. North Korea's second in command, Kim Yong-nam, has reportedly said that Pyongyang is now ready to engage in dialogue to "resolve security concerns" with Washington if the U.S. is "willing to withdraw its hostile policy" toward the North Meanwhile, Radio Pyongyang continues to claim that the North has been fulfilling its Agreed Framework commitments "more than 100 percent," calling U.S. allegations "ridiculous," even as Kim Yong-nam was assuring his ROK interlocutors that "we are taking the recent situation seriously"...

NORTH KOREAN FOOD OUTPUT RISES BUT SITUATION STILL DIRE

Reuters reported that the DPRK raised its cereal production this year but is still desperate for food aid, the United Nations said on Monday. "In spite of an increased harvest, a significant number of families in North Korea are still unable to meet their food needs," two U.N. food agencies said in a special report. "The country will again have to depend on substantial external food assistance," the Rome-based U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation and World Food Programme said. Separately on Monday, the WFP -- the world's largest food aid agency -- said it was struggling to feed 6.5 million people in the DPRK as funding shortages had forced it to suspend some emergency relief operations there. A joint FAO-WFP mission, which visited North Korea from September 24 to October 5, forecast 2002/03 cereal production at 3.84 million ton, the best harvest since 1995/96 and up 4.9 percent from last year. Favourable rains during July and August benefited the main crops in 2002, and international aid agencies provided farmers with fertilizers and pesticides, FAO and WFP said. The mission estimated the cereal deficit in 2002/03 (November/October) at 1.084 million tons and said the DPRK could only fill a fraction of the gap with commercial imports. ("NORTH KOREAN FOOD OUTPUT RISES BUT SITUATION STILL DIRE," Rome, 10/29/02)

NORTH STORE PUT AT 3-5 BOMBS

Joongang Ilbo reported that RPC has warned US that DPRK may possess between three and five working nuclear weapons, twice the estimate of the US intelligence community, a British newspaper reported Sunday. Quoting unnamed diplomatic sources, the Sunday Times reported that the figure was based on Chinese intelligence reports. The information was passed to US officials last week with a warning that "a confrontation with DPRK's erratic dictator, Kim Jong-il, would spell disaster," the newspaper said. The Central Intelligence Agency of US has long suggested that DPRK had obtained enough plutonium to build one or two weapons before the 1994 Geneva Agreed Framework froze DPRK's program. According to the daily, PRC appeared to have concluded that DPRK acquired enough uranium from a new program to make several more devices. (Ser Myo-ja, "NORTH STORE PUT AT 3-5 BOMBS," Seoul, 10/28/02)

WFP Calls for Emergency Food Supply

JoongAng Ilbo. October 27, 2002. The World Food Program has made an urgent request for 220,000 metric tons of cereal to the international community last Friday. In the Emergency Report No. 43, the organization stated it requires 72,000 tons of cereal to cover the needs of vulnerable people on North Korea's west coast for next two months and another 130,000 metric tons of cereals for the first quarters of the year 2003. The report has it 18 factories in the North that produce flour and powdered milk for pregnant woman, nursing mothers and children are in danger of closing down by January next year without immediate help. By next month another three million babies, students and pregnant women will suspended of their food ration nearby Yellow Sea region and some 1.5 million population in East Sea region by early next year. The report especially expressed concern toward the growing children likely to be affected by the malnutrition of their early days for rest of their lives.

N. KOREANS MAY HAVE FIVE NUCLEAR MISSILES

The London Sunday Times reported that the US has been warned by the PRC that the DPRK may have between three and five working nuclear weapons, twice the CIA's estimate.  Diplomatic sources say the PRC based their figure on intelligence reports and told US officials last week that a confrontation with the DPRK would spell disaster. The PRC appear to have concluded that the DPRK obtained enough uranium from a second clandestine program to make several more devices. Evidence has emerged to suggest the CIA is coming round to this theory.  Experts believe the DPRK has succeeded in miniaturizing their weapons to make warheads for their ballistic missiles. The latest generation of DPRK missiles is capable of hitting anywhere in Japan. Although the missiles could also reach Alaska, the chief worry for US planners is that 37,000 troops in the ROK and bases in Japan could be prime targets. [This London Sunday Times Article appeared in in today's edition of the US Department of the Defense's Early Bird news summary.] (Michael Sheridan, "KOREANS MAY HAVE FIVE NUCLEAR MISSILES," Seoul, 10/27/02)

Rodong Sinmun on predatory nature of imperialists' "aid"

Pyongyang, October 26 (KCNA) -- Under the cloak of "aid" and "cooperation" the imperialists claim that those countries which undergo economic woes cannot stand to their feet without their capital and technology. They seek an ulterior aim through this. Rodong Sinmun today says this in a signed article. Being aggressive and predatory, the imperialists do not do others favour. Obvious is the aim they seek through "aid." Through the "aid" they seek to openly interfere in the internal affairs of the underdeveloped countries and those countries that incur their displeasure in a bid to force their view on value and social structure upon those nations, westernize all fabrics of the social life of their peoples and thus establish an imperialist order based on subjugation and domination.

The United States is keen to force other countries to accept the American way of life under various pretexts of "aid," "loan," "joint development," etc. with a view to Americanizing them and establishing a monopolistic high-handed order. No country has achieved economic progress or prosperity because of the imperialists' "aid."
As their financial crisis is getting serious and their "aid" policy does not work on others, the imperialists are now resorting to crafty tricks to economically subjugate the underdeveloped countries through the multi-national companies' export of capital. The foreign capital which the imperialists advertise as if it were a big help is nothing but capital to rake up maximum profits. Not a few countries are in the grip of social and economic chaos and ethnic dispute because they were not aware that the imperialists' "aid" and foreign capital are a noose of subjugation and looting but harbored illusions and depended on them. An illusion about imperialism leads to death. This is a historical lesson.
 

"Can North Korea's Perestroika Succeed?"

by Wada Haruki, October 25, 2002
 

1. It was indeed a shocking confession and apology. Admitting that North Korea in the late 1970s and early 1980s had abducted 13 Japanese, of whom eight had died and five survived, Chairman of the DPRK National Defense Commission, Kim Jong Il, apologized for it. It was admitted that 10 of the 11 on the list of suspected abductions published by the Japanese government had indeed been abducted. Yokota Megumi had been abducted, and so had three dating couples. Worst of all, the fact that 8 had died showed how savage state crime can be. It was astonishing to learn that Arimoto Keiko, together with Ishioka Toru, who is said to have been l